Opinion polls
From The limitations of opinion polls by Sean Swan (2018)
Typical polls for the 2017 UK general election had a sample size in the 1,200 to 2,200 range. The margin of error of a poll with a sample size of 1,200 is roughly 3 percent, while a sample of 2,200 will have a margin of error of 2 percent. Thus, for a poll with a sample size of 1,200 which shows Labour on 35 percent and the Tories on 34 percent, this poll would be statistically ‘accurate’ in relation to each of the following hypothetical results in that each is within the margin of error of the poll:
Statistical accuracy is not what is sought by political pundits and other consumers of opinion polls, such as the media and politicians. They want to know who is likely to win the election. But it gets worse. The 3 percent margin of error is the most accurate such a poll can be. If there are errors in the polling methodology, such as unrepresentative samples (which the Sturgis inquiry found to be one of the reasons for the 2015 polling miss), the margin of error will be correspondingly greater.
Local constituencies
Peterborough – Labour gain
County/Area: Cambridgeshire (Anglia) – Electorate: 71,663
Andrew Pakes won with a majority of 118 over Conservatives
Paul Bristow (CON) had a majority of 2,580 in the 2019 election.
All candidates
Andrew Pakes: email – Wikipedia – Website – YouTube – X (Twitter) Facebook – Instagram
South Holland and The Deepings – Conservative hold
John Hayes won with a majority of 6,856 over Reform UK.
His majority was 30,838 in the 2019 election.
County/Area: Lincolnshire (East Midlands) – Electorate: 75,977
John Hayes (CON) – Wikipedia.
All candidates
The Labour candidate was Paul Hilliar.
YouTube – X (Twitter) – Facebook – Instagram
Cambridgeshire North East – Conservative hold
Majority of 7,189 over Reform UK
County/Area: Cambridgeshire (Anglia) – Electorate: 70,565
Steve Barclay (CON) – Wikipedia. His majority in the 2019 election was 29,993 (56.6% of the vote).
All candidates
The Labour candidate is Dr Alex Bulat
email – Website – YouTube – X (Twitter) – Instagram
Cambridgeshire North West – Labour gain
Majority of 39 over Conservatives
County/Area: Cambridgeshire (Anglia) – Electorate: 72,889
Shailesh Vara (CON) – Wikipedia. His majority in the 2019 election was 25,983 (40.3% of the vote).
All candidates
The Labour candidate is Sam Carling
email – YouTube – X (Twitter) – Instagram
Corby and East Northamptonshire – Labour gain
Majority of 6,331 over Conservatives
County/Area: Northamptonshire (East Midlands) – Electorate: 76,933
Tom Pursglove (CON) – Wikipedia. His majority in the 2019 election was 10,268 (17.0% of the vote).
All candidates
The Labour candidate is Lee Baron
email – X (Twitter) – Facebook – Instagram
Rutland and Stamford – Conservative hold
Majority of 10,394 over Labour
County/Area: Leicestershire (East Midlands) – Electorate: 71,730
Alicia Kearns (CON) – Wikipedia. Her majority was 26,924 (62.6% of the vote).
All candidates
The Labour candidate is Joe Wood
email – Home page – Local Labour Party page – X (Twitter)
Grantham and Bourne – Conservative hold
Majority of 4,496 over Labour
County/Area: Lincolnshire (East Midlands) – Electorate: 72,168
Gareth Davies (CON) – Wikipedia. His majority was 26,003 (65.7% of the vote).
All candidates
The Labour candidate is Vipul Bechar
email – X (Twitter) – LinkedIn
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Peterborough Fabian Society 